Russia had one other dangerous week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s try to plant the Russian flag on the moon’s south pole led to failure when the Luna 25 spacecraft crashed on the lunar floor.
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Then, on Wednesday, the Ukrainian navy destroyed a Russian S-400 missile system in Crimea close to the village of Olenivka on Cape Tarkhankut, additional weakening the air protection umbrella for Russian forces on the peninsula. All of the sudden, releasing Crimea is changing into a risk.
That very same day, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane plunged 28,000 toes from the sky north of Moscow. The founding father of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary power and 9 different passengers and crew, together with Prigozhin’s second in command, Dmitry Utkin, purportedly died on affect.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied any Kremlin involvement within the “accident,” stating, “Proper now, in fact, there are many speculations round this aircraft crash and the tragic deaths of the passengers of the aircraft, together with Yevgeny Prigozhin. … After all, within the West, these speculations are put out below a sure angle, and all of it’s a full lie.”
In the meantime, Wagner members in Russia launched “chilling movies threatening revenge — and a brand new ‘March of Justice’ on Moscow.” The inner menace simply ratcheted up whereas Ukrainian drones proceed putting targets in and round Moscow. Putin might have an out, and his Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu could also be “that man.”
You realize who didn’t have a foul week? India. One-upping Putin, New Delhi managed to land its Chandrayaan-3 efficiently in the identical area the place the Luna 25 crashed.
Ukraine did properly, too. Within the early morning hours of their Independence Day, commandos planted the Ukrainian flag on Cape Tarhankut. Studies point out Kyiv’s counteroffensive is progressing. Ukrainian forces penetrated Russian defenses within the Zaporizhzhia area, expanded towards Tokmak, secured Robotyne, and are making beneficial properties in Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvate.
Ukraine additionally secured 61 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands. Whereas they won’t make a right away affect on the battlefield, they are going to be part of the answer, and Putin is aware of it. Time was as soon as thought of a bonus for Putin. Now, it appears extra like a legal responsibility, given the previous week’s occasions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could also be foreshadowing his decisive finish state: deep strikes into Crimea coupled with a sluggish grinding method towards the peninsula.
His chief of protection intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has been extra direct.
“This particular operation is significant, to start with, to make individuals consider,” he stated. “Primarily individuals not even on the territory of mainland Ukraine however in Crimea. We want them to recollect and consider that victory is simply across the nook. And their liberation isn’t far off, both. And no person goes to simply depart them there. And when there are, for example, sure strikes on the territory of Crimea, it will not finish with that. There shall be a floor operation and the restoration of our territories. Everybody will quickly be dwelling.”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees, just lately instructed reporters in Jordan, “It’s nonetheless too early to evaluate the success or failure of the [counteroffensive]. … It’s clear that up to now partial success has been achieved.”
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However as Giampaolo Di Paola, Italy’s former protection minister and chairman of NATO’s navy committee, stated, “Ukraine has seized the initiative from invading Russian forces.”
The precedence for Ukraine is to keep up momentum whereas setting situations for an assault to isolate or reclaim Crimea. Moscow’s failure to land on the darkish facet of the moon foretells different defeats. Extra darkish weeks are forward for Putin and his generals in Ukraine.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Military colonel and 30-year navy intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Commerce Middle, St. Louis.