In recognition of the rising significance of the Indo-Pacific, its financial and technological prowess, and in opposition to the background of the Sino-US rivalry, NATO has intensified its relationships with companions, the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea), Australia, Japan and New Zealand (AP4). Points like nonproliferation, cyber protection, science and know-how, counterterrorism, interoperability, protection in opposition to chemical, organic, radiological, and nuclear brokers, in addition to the hotspots of the Democratic Individuals’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea), Taiwan, East and South China Sea, Myanmar and the border dispute between India and China, are all areas that may impression instantly on the Euro-Atlantic safety.
One of many the explanation why it took the ROK seventeen years to accredit its Mission in Brussels to NATO (solely in 2022) was that Seoul has targeted for a very long time primarily on the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula, the place NATO was not perceived as an necessary participant. The intensification of the Sino-US rivalry and the ROK’s aim to develop into a “world pivotal state”—that’s, globally engaged and value-inspired—have modified this calculation, leading to better cooperation with NATO and particular person member states.
This paper first sketches the rapprochement between NATO and the ROK due to geopolitical modifications and the indivisibility of safety. North Korea and nonproliferation, in addition to cybersecurity, are uniting challenges and the necessity to issue China into the regional and world safety equation. For the ROK, this implies not solely participation in sanctions in opposition to Russia but in addition backfilling much-needed weapons to Ukraine, the place Russia makes use of North Korean shells. Strengthening extra formal ties with NATO additionally serves as a preparatory measure if a transactional US president is returned to workplace; it might additionally contribute to rendering the bilateral relationship with Japan throughout the AP4 community extra resilient. The paper concludes by declaring that NATO wants public diplomacy within the Indo-Pacific to exhibit its added worth to safety and diplomacy.
Participation in Summits
The ROK was invited for the primary time to the NATO Summit in Madrid in 2022. There, it made a powerful impression on each the army and value-sharing fronts. Boasting a protection spending of two.7 % of GDP—the Asia-Pacific associate outperforming many NATO members—and demonstrating solidarity in collaborating in sanctions in opposition to Russia due to its unlawful struggle in opposition to Ukraine, these key parts and extra made President Yoon Suk-yeol a sought-after interlocuter for these in search of to buy arms at good high quality and value on the summits.
The arms cope with Poland consisting of K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 tanks, armored autos and aircrafts, together with FA-50 fighter jets, amounted by 2023 to $11.7 billion, up 184 % from a yr earlier. This backfill operation for NATO members supplying Ukraine not directly was appreciated by the alliance and strengthened the ROK’s positioning itself as a pivotal state in world politics. This coverage shift was spurred by China’s “pro-Russian neutrality” and Russia’s rising engagement with North Korea, which additionally led the ROK to accentuate cooperation with the US and heat as much as Japan.
The division of and tensions on the Korean Peninsula are mirrored in North Korea supplying the opposite celebration within the battle, Russia, with artillery shells, resulting in a state of affairs the place South and North Korean arms are used on the identical battlefield. It is a peculiar state of affairs for 2 nations the place solely an armistice reigns, harking back to previous proxy conditions. All of sudden, these deliveries by the North render a kinetic follow-up to Kim Jong Un’s fierce enemy rhetoric vis-à-vis the South unlikely as shares are run down, though the possible Russian compensation in technological help for North Korea’s nuclear, weapons and satellite tv for pc packages add to the tensions.
Reflecting the rising geostrategic interdependence, the NATO 2022 Strategic Ideas check with the risk emanating from North Korea. “Iran and North Korea proceed to develop their nuclear and missile programmes. Syria, North Korea and the Russian Federation, together with non-state actors, have resorted to the usage of chemical weapons.” The NATO Secretary Common additionally often points statements, like on the event of “…the launch of a army satellite tv for pc by the Democratic Individuals’s Republic of Korea, utilizing ballistic missile know-how in violation of a number of U.N. Safety Council resolutions. This raises tensions and poses a severe threat to regional and worldwide safety.”
NATO help for Seoul’s North Korea coverage is a driving drive for the ROK to cooperate with NATO. NATO helps denuclearization, condemns the North’s provocative rhetoric, nuclear actions and ballistic missile assessments, and shares the view that this conduct poses a severe risk to regional and worldwide peace, safety and stability. The triangular arms supply doubtlessly contributes to standardization and interoperability amongst companions.
Cybersecurity is one other frequent difficulty: Because the ROK is usually the sufferer of cyberattacks from China and North Korea, participation in NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) improves resilience; for a similar purpose, cybersecurity can also be the pilot mission for the European Union (EU)-ROK safety cooperation.[1].
On the Vilnius Summit, the Individually Tailor-made Partnership Programme up to date the earlier one, specifying “intimately cooperation objectives, the background of choosing areas for cooperation, strategic targets, detailed mission content material and implementation schedule to attain cooperation.” The Vilnius Summit Communiqué offers with one other important concern of the ROK, that’s, China. It states: “The Individuals’s Republic of China’s acknowledged ambitions and coercive insurance policies problem our pursuits, safety and values.” Subsequently, whereas remaining open to constructive engagement, NATO allies will tackle “the systemic challenges posed by the PRC to Euro-Atlantic safety and guarantee NATO’s enduring skill to ensure the defence and safety of Allies.” Whereas the ROK can’t anticipate any safety assure from this association, “shared consciousness, enhancing our resilience and preparedness, and defending in opposition to the PRC’s coercive ways and efforts to divide the Alliance” in addition to the plea to play a constructive function to finish the struggle in Ukraine, are related for its safety. Whereas deterrence is achieved by the alliance with the US, the AP4 relationship might add to it, if session with the US truly shapes its insurance policies and strategic decisions.
Want for a Credible “Out-of-Space” Agenda
The Indo-Pacific stays “out-of-area” for NATO; nevertheless, “situational consciousness of safety developments within the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific areas, together with Russia’s struggle on Ukraine, the shift within the world stability of energy and the rise of China, and the safety state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula” are of mutual significance, recognizing that there’s solely one complete safety. Subsequently, the transatlantic and the transpacific dimensions want holistic analysis and response.
This additionally applies to the EU, which acknowledges that:
A paradigm shift in direction of extra realism with out throwing idealism overboard is within the making, which wants conceptual work as began with the Strategic Compass and shut cooperation within the Transatlantic and Transpacific theatres with the US and companions.
The Strategic Compass specifies that the EU will deepen and broaden the “strategic partnership, political dialogue and cooperation with NATO throughout all agreed areas of interplay, together with new key work strands equivalent to resilience, rising disruptive applied sciences, local weather and defence and outer area.” Whereas the Korean engagement with NATO gives an extra alternative for complete cooperation between Brussels and Seoul, EU and NATO operations are completely different and ought to be stored separate, equivalent to Operation ATALANTA and Operation Ocean Protect.
The casual NATO framework of AP4 cooperation has additionally helped the rapprochement between Japan and the ROK, offering stepping stones for quadrilateral conferences resulting in the trilateral Camp David Summit, the Camp David Rules and the Dedication to Seek the advice of. Japan and the ROK are invited for the third time in a row to the 2024 July NATO Summit in Washington. As a part of this summit, a trilateral assembly within the Camp David format is beneath preparation to maintain the momentum. This shall be essential to maintain historic points at bay. Current choices by the Korean Supreme Court docket in favor of wartime pressured labor employees’ claims on Japanese firms may pressure the connection. Nevertheless, for the primary time ever, a Japanese firm paid compensation to the household of a deceased employee, which is doubtlessly an necessary step in fixing the problem and important for having the ability to maintain ROK-Japan ties amid the annoying safety state of affairs. By way of safety, the trilateral will serve to debate additional cooperation within the context of NATO and discover frequent floor on North Korea, as Japan appears to be enthusiastic about holding a summit assembly.
NATO additionally performs a task within the context of nonproliferation. Contemplating the threats emanating from North Korea and China, the ROK’s belief within the iron-clad alliance with the US began to crack throughout President Trump’s “love affair” with the North Korean chief. Doubts concerning the US nuclear umbrella fueled discussions in Seoul about “nuclear sovereignty,” that’s, the indigenous manufacturing or stationing of US nuclear arms within the ROK. On this context, NATO-style weapon sharing, which implies participation within the planning of deterrence, may cut back the temptation to go alone. On the event of the seventieth anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2023, the US and the ROK agreed to the Washington Declaration, the place Seoul confirmed: “full confidence in U.S. prolonged deterrence commitments and acknowledge the significance, necessity, and advantage of its enduring reliance on the U.S. nuclear deterrent.” This reassurance ought to assist President Yoon to face his floor.
Nevertheless, future developments will rely closely on the US and its coverage in direction of the ROK: gaining operational management (OPCON) over the army in occasions of struggle is an unresolved difficulty that nourishes the nationalistic undercurrent. The identical goes for Seoul’s contribution to burden sharing for US troops stationed within the nation (Particular Measures Settlement), the place President Trump beforehand pushed undiplomatically and exhausting for a significant enhance. These parts may develop into a push issue for Seoul to try for nuclear sovereignty. Its diplomatic prices in breaching nonproliferation agreements, the doubtless spreading of proliferation to incorporate Japan, would must be weighed in opposition to safety gained—all unfavourable, for my part.
As a return to a transactional US presidency is of concern, there are additionally efforts underway to strengthen institutional bonds to extend the resilience of US engagement. This was additionally the principle theme of the seventy fifth anniversary assembly of NATO international ministers in Brussels in April 2024; as Secretary Common Stoltenberg put it, “I don’t imagine in America alone. Simply as I don’t imagine in Europe alone. I imagine in America and Europe collectively.” AP4 international ministers have been invited and had a separate working session with their NATO colleagues.
NATO’s outreach to AP4, along with the intelligence community 5 Eyes, Quad and ultimately Quad+, AUKUS, D-10 Technique Discussion board of main democracies, the Summit of Democracies, and T-12 Techno Democracies may change the US hub-and-spoke alliance system right into a extra network-based system, establishing hyperlinks among the many numerous bilateral and minilateral preparations. The deliberate trilateral US-Japan-Philippines army train is a part of this new improvement. Nonetheless, there’s a similarity between the US and China of their strategic strategy to their rivalry: each desire organising their very own preparations as a substitute of working by present ones, just like the United Nations or G20—an important energy perspective to use strengths instantly and unfiltered.
Already earlier than Xi Jinping, the Shanghai 5 turned the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Convention on Interplay and Confidence Constructing in Asia (CICA) was meant to offer a automobile for an “Asia for Asians” coverage. The Boa Discussion board, BRICS+, the New Asia Improvement Financial institution, the Asia Infrastructure Funding Financial institution (AIIB) and numerous funds supporting the Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI) are additional examples, in addition to China’s participation in regional free commerce agreements like Regional Complete Financial Partnership Settlement (RCEP) and its curiosity in becoming a member of the Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
In distinction, the US or, extra particularly, President Trump, dropped out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. As an alternative of rejoining that regional commerce association, President Biden opted to pursue his personal, albeit much less bold, initiative, the Indo-Pacific Financial Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), which has a powerful like-minded ingredient however—crucially—doesn’t grant market entry. Whereas these cooperative efforts restrain bilateral stress, they contribute to a bifurcation of world political and financial techniques because the guardians of the techniques, the UN and World Commerce Group (WTO), are weak.
Conclusions
The ROK’s engagement with NATO gives a platform and community for constructing a extra complete safety coverage. The AP4 share pursuits in protecting the US engaged within the Indo-Pacific, to which deliberations in and with NATO can contribute. Whereas additionally pushed by industrial concerns, Korean arms gross sales to Poland have contributed to NATO’s efforts to help Ukraine in its official protection. These gross sales supply an extra different sourcing, thereby additionally contributing to de-risking in a state of affairs the place Europe has issues supplying promised armaments, the US Congress is paralyzed by the stand-off between Democrats and Republicans, and Trump II is looming. As well as, and importantly, on the interface of civil-military know-how, the ROK is main in high-end semiconductors, which can also be of curiosity for the European protection trade.
Seen from the EU perspective, the ROK is on the identical web page regarding rule of legislation, reform of commerce governance and a cooperative stance within the Indo-Pacific, together with China. They share the view that financial and technological safety can’t be achieved by decoupling however wants cautious administration to attain the aim of better resilience. A transatlantic and transpacific community of companions resolute to keep up a rules-based order strengthens the person companions and networks. This additionally provides to deterrence when offered realistically.
On this context, getting the analysis of safety developments within the Indo-Pacific from the AP4 primarily based on their onsite intelligence and regional expertise is a strategic asset for NATO. Openness for all these enthusiastic about cooperating in response to guidelines may contribute to the stabilization of the Indo-Pacific and counter the narrative of encircling China. It displays that safety has develop into indivisible, as NATO Secretary Common Stoltenberg underlined on the event of the seventy fifth anniversary international ministers assembly, albeit extra from a European perspective:
…the struggle in Ukraine demonstrates how intertwined the safety of Europe is with the safety of Asia and the Pacific. North Korea, China, Iran are supporting Russia’s struggle of aggression in numerous methods, so this demonstrates that safety just isn’t regional safety, it’s actually world, and due to this fact it will be significant that we work along with our Asia-Pacific companions.
On the identical time, expertise within the post-Soviet period teaches us that it’s essential to keep away from any false impression of NATO’s engagement within the Indo-Pacific. French reluctance to conform to a liaison workplace in Tokyo was additionally impressed by the priority to not irritate China additional—a legitimate level in expectation administration. NATO help for the ROK’s coverage of the denuclearization of North Korea and nonproliferation is much less delicate for China. China has been the practically solely backer of North Korea for many years. Thus, the wedding of comfort between Russia and North Korea, which reduces Chinese language affect, is to not China’s liking in the long term. Because the US regards North Korea because the extra quick risk and China the long-term systemic rival, cooperation on North Korea may develop into a standard trigger. Equally, Japan and Korea specializing in North Korea may assist soothe China, which in any other case eyes this new entente with suspicion and as a part of a US-lead containment coverage.
Given the mentioned minilateral in addition to the underlying bilateral strategic partnerships, agenda setting for the varied establishments and conferences is necessary in selecting the suitable discussion board, particularly by way of inclusiveness and transparency and avoiding ineffective overlaps. For NATO, this implies creating an agenda displaying added worth in combining transatlantic and transpacific methods to fulfill threats in each theatres past the acute menace, primarily based on mutual curiosity, to interact companions sustainably. Thus, there’s a want for public diplomacy, explaining mutual advantages, particularly for preserving peace within the area, as basic publics will not be aware of NATO’s duties. Preventive diplomacy to keep up peace and guarantee that Ukraine just isn’t tomorrow’s Taiwan can be in excessive demand.