London mayoral race 2024: The three large points that might resolve Khan’s destiny

Voters throughout England and Wales will take to the polls on Thursday for the most recent spherical of native elections. Alongside 1000’s of councillors, a document 12 metro mayors are to be elected – together with the high-profile Mayor of London.

Incumbent Sadiq Khan is hoping to safe a 3rd time period for Labour as he fights off Conservative candidate Susan Corridor. They’re amongst 11 candidates in whole, together with the controversial right-wing Reform UK get together’s Jeremy Cox.

Mr Khan has sought to give attention to his succcesses when on the marketing campaign path. These embrace an enlargement to present rail and bus traces, in addition to frozen fares for Londoners.

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The London mayor has additionally pledged insurance policies which goal to sort out the continued value of dwelling disaster and housing points many within the capital are going through. Amongst these are free college meals for all kids, and 40,000 new council properties.

His competitors has aimed to attract the dividing traces elsewhere. Excessive on the agenda of most candidates is a change or scrap to Mr Khan’s Ulez enlargement, which continues to impress intense reactions.

Alongside challenges to his document on knife crime and adjustments to the electoral system, Thursday’s mayoral election is prone to be the Labour mayor’s most tough – one thing he has admitted himself.

Right here every part it is advisable to know in regards to the three large points which have formed London’s mayoral election:

The controversy round ULEZ rages on (as Reform UK takes benefit)

Individuals throughout an anti-Ulez protest in Trafalgar Sq. (Stefan Rousseau/PA) (PA Wire)

London’s Extremely Low Emission Zone (Ulez) is an space throughout the metropolis inside which a £12.50 day by day cost is made to anybody driving a non-compliant car. It was expanded by Mr Khan in August 2023 to cowl all London boroughs – sparking fierce and ongoing backlash.

The Ulez is designed to enhance air high quality within the capital and, though research range, it’s usually thought of by consultants to be a seamless success. The mayor’s workplace claims that the coverage decreased dangerous air pollution ranges by round half in its first yr, whereas extra conservative analysis suggests a 15 to twenty per cent discount.

Nevertheless, critics have known as the brand new enlargement a cost-raising train that’s unlikely to considerably enhance London’s air high quality additional, however will introduce a poorly-timed new charge to some dwelling contained in the M25 amid the continued value of dwelling disaster.

The difficulty has turn into a powerful division amongst voters in London, and was a focus throughout July’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election (triggered by Boris Johnson’s resignation). Main as much as the election, the realm noticed vocal campaigning towards the enlargement, with some Ulez cameras within the space vandalised and even torn down.

Susan Corridor, the Conservative London Mayoral Candidate, chatting with protesters throughout an anti-Ulez protest in Trafalgar Sq. (Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)

Though the coverage is devolved to a regional degree, and so not throughout the energy of central authorities to undo, Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell’s criticism of the coverage has been linked to his slim victory.

“We received it on the truth that it was a referendum on Ulez,” Mr Tuckwell informed Sky Information after his election.

The mayor’s workplace continues to push again on the difficulty. His workplace has strained to level out that 85 per cent of automobiles inside outer London are already Ulez compliant, and in September dominated out ever introducing a rumoured pay-per-mile system.

However within the run-up to the mayoral election, the difficulty stays contentious as ever.

In her marketing campaign pledges, Conservative mayoral candidate Susan Corridor has mentioned she would scrap the Ulez enlargement as a primary precedence, and guarantee a pay-per-mile cost isn’t launched – regardless of Mr Khan’s insistence he has no plans for one.

In the meantime Reform UK’s Jeremy Cox has gone even additional, claiming he would scrap the whole coverage, internal London included, and even refund all of the Ulez charges collected since August’s enlargement.

Reform UK London Mayoral Candidate Howard Cox at an anti-Ulez protest in Trafalgar Sq. (PA)

The motorist campaigner has additionally mentioned he’ll take away London’s low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs), which filter site visitors away from sure areas to enhance air high quality and pedestrian security.

They’ve turn into one other London resident speaking level, creating divisions alongside the identical traces because the Ulez debate. Critics say that LTNs – a few of which have been in place for many years – solely create greater site visitors on diversion routes, to the dismay of commuters and residents.

Nevertheless, a current government-backed assessment discovered that LTNs usually work nicely and are fashionable. And since they’re devolved to council degree, it’s not throughout the Mayor’s energy to take away them instantly.

Knife crime within the capital is rising – but it surely’s not so easy

Sadiq Khan inspects new police recruits, 2020 (PA)

Within the run-up to the election, most of the mayor’s opponents have accused him of not successfully tackling the difficulty of knife crime within the capital, and argue that circumstances are hovering.

It’s true that circumstances of knife crime in London have risen since Mr Khan’s was elected in 2016. From 2015 to 2023, circumstances recorded by the Met have doubled, growing from 9,743 to 14,577.

The yr ending December 2019 noticed probably the most severe knife-related crimes, at 15,462, with a pointy decline in the course of the Covid pandemic. This has been steadily growing in recent times.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak lately criticised the mayor’s document on crime, saying London below Mr Khan was the one place within the nation to not meet its police recruitment targets, which he known as “the truth of Labour in energy”.

The mayor has pushed again towards this criticism, arguing that he’s contending with many years of Conservative austerity.

“We’ve been attempting to fill the large gap left by authorities cuts by investing in younger individuals, youth golf equipment, after-school golf equipment and mentoring,” he mentioned.

New analysis by the revered Institute for Fiscal Research (IFS) backs his place, discovering that closures of 70 per cent of London’s police stations since 2010 led to an 11 per cent enhance in murders and assaults in close by neighbourhoods.

And though it stays one of many prime 4 areas with excessive charges of knife crime in England, London didn’t have the best in 2023. Final yr, the capital’s fee of knife-related offences per 100,000 individuals was 137, coming second to the West Midlands’ fee of 167. The common in England is 89.

There’s been TWO large adjustments to the voting system

Voters should now convey picture ID on polling day (Getty Photos)

The federal government handed the Elections Act in 2022, bringing in some main adjustments to the electoral system within the UK. It has majorly modified the best way votes are counted in London’s mayoral elections.

In earlier years, voters chosen their first and second selection candidate in a system generally known as the Supplementary Vote. This meant that if their first selection candidate was eradicated and neither of the highest two candidates acquired over 50 per cent of the vote, their second selection would then be counted (if it was for one of many prime two candidates).

Voters will now solely choose one candidate below the brand new ‘First Previous the Submit’ voting system – the identical that we use for normal elections. It implies that whoever will get probably the most votes wins.

In each his 2016 and 2021 victories, Mr Khan was elected within the second ‘spherical’, having did not safe 50 per cent of first selection votes. Nevertheless, he nonetheless would have received each instances below the brand new system, as he secured extra votes than his second-place opponents.

Voters in England and Wales go to the polls on Could 2 (PA) (PA Wire)

One other key change to come back from the Elections Act are the controversial new voter ID legal guidelines, which implies voters should now convey photographic identification to the polling station on election day.

Passports, driving licences and the brand new voter authority certificates are amongst the accepted types of ID. The federal government says the brand new legal guidelines are designed to crack down on election fraud. Nevertheless, critics level out circumstances of this within the UK are uncommon, and that legal guidelines might disproportionately have an effect on marginalised communities’ potential to vote.

Mr Khan has expressed his considerations in regards to the new adjustments, saying the Conservative get together made them “to make it extra probably their candidate will win.”

The mayor known as on Lib Dem and Inexperienced voters who gave him their second selection vote final time to vote for him alone this time, arguing that the margins will now be tighter.

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