The conflict in Ukraine isn’t prone to finish quickly, as a result of Russia is gaining floor, making extra munitions, and getting extra assist from China, Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines instructed lawmakers Could 2.
“We assess that President [Vladimir] Putin thinks that home and worldwide tendencies are in his favor,” Haines instructed the Senate Armed Providers Committee. Putin is “reconstituting” Russia’s power after a disastrous first two years of the conflict, which have seen greater than 300,000 Russian casualties and value a whole bunch of billions of {dollars}, Haines added.
Given Russia’s harsh ways and up to date successes, there are few significant “pathways out of the conflict, together with by way of negotiations,” Haines mentioned. “These aggressive ways are prone to proceed and the conflict is unlikely to finish anytime quickly.”
Proper now, Russia is making sluggish however regular progress on the battlefield, “with the potential for tactical breakthroughs alongside the entrance traces in areas resembling Donetsk and Kharkiv,” Haines mentioned. On the identical time, the Russians are amping up ammunition manufacturing, she famous, whereas mentioning delays in U.S. help to Ukraine and Europe’s lack of surge capability in munitions.
Russia’s positive aspects in armaments manufacturing are due in no small half to China’s willingness to offer parts and materials to Moscow, Haines mentioned—“certainly one of a number of elements” which have boosted Russia’s momentum in current months.
Whereas Putin has made feedback suggesting he’s keen to enter into peace talks relating to Ukraine, there isn’t any indication “that he’s keen to make important concessions,” Haines asserted.
By placing civilian targets and infrastructure in Ukraine, she mentioned, Putin goals to persuade Ukrainians “that persevering with the combat will solely improve the injury to Ukraine and provide no believable path to victory.”
Hitting Ukraine’s infrastructure can also be creates logistical hurdles for shifting forces and provides, slows protection manufacturing, and builds strain on Kyiv.
Haines mentioned Putin is “doubling down” on the conflict, boosting protection spending to almost 7 % of Russia’s GDP. Army spending now accounts for 25 % of Russia’s authorities finances, she added.
“In some ways, that is prompted by the truth that Russia has paid an infinite worth for the conflict in Ukraine,” she mentioned, noting the casualties and a whole bunch of billions in sunk prices, but additionally that it has “precipitated Finland’s and Sweden’s membership in NATO,” which Putin didn’t need. Putin is utilizing the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO as justification for increasing the dimensions of the military, she mentioned.
Haines mentioned Putin’s profession within the KGB formed his worldview that “Russia is underneath menace” from NATO and must push again towards it. A “bigger, better-equipped navy will drive that time dwelling to Western and home audiences which couldn’t imagine” Russia wanted a extra highly effective navy, she mentioned.
Putin’s “strategic objectives additionally stay unchanged. He continues to see NATO enlargement and Western assist to Ukraine as reinforcing his long-held perception that the US and Europe search to limit Russia.”
Russia additionally sees the Hamas-Israel conflict as a way “to divide us from our allies,” Haines asserted.
On the continued battle within the Center East, Haines repeated the Biden administration’s earlier assertion that Iran didn’t have prior data of Hamas’ Oct. 7 assaults however is utilizing the scenario to additional increase its affect within the area and painting itself because the main regional opponent of American and Israeli energy.
Haines additionally mentioned that Iran shouldn’t be instantly pursing nuclear weapons, however “what they’re doing is shortening the time interval that it could take for them to truly enrich a ample quantity of fabric for a nuclear weapon in the event that they decide to maneuver ahead on it.” That’s completely different from actively pursuing nuclear weapons, she mentioned, deferring additional remark to a closed session about how lengthy it could take for Iran to create the mandatory supplies for nuclear weapons.
In Lebanon, Haines mentioned Hezbollah “doesn’t need the scenario to grow to be an all-out conflict with Israel and the US,” although cross-border assaults by either side proceed with the potential to escalate.
Nonetheless, the Houthis in Yemen, who’ve attacked worldwide delivery within the area, have resumed “practically every day maritime assaults after asserting that they intend to escalate strikes and increase their hostile actions to the Indian Ocean,” Haines mentioned.
In the meantime, Iranian-backed militias “proceed to plan assaults towards our forces,” Haines mentioned, however “have broadly paused conducting such assaults. … It isn’t clear how lengthy that pause will final.”